As the top-tier teams gear up for the final month of the NFL season, half the league has no chance of advancing to the postseason.
For those teams, the final five weeks will be about the future, because it’s all they have. Sixteen teams – eight in each conference – are under .500. They break down into three groups.
ON THE RISE
These are the losing teams with something to look forward to.
Cleveland: New coach Romeo Crennel is being lauded for having an organized program. The Browns are getting better as the season progresses and will be further improved in 2006.
Miami: Nick Saban clearly is focused on the future. This is a coaching star whose team will be a Super Bowl contender in three years.
San Francisco: First-year coach Mike Nolan is sharp and getting good effort from a young team. Alex Smith will be a decent quarterback, and the team should improve its offense in the draft.
Tennessee: Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the NFL. This team is in shambles because of a salary cap purge, but Fisher will make it competitive again.
ON THE DECLINE
These are losing teams with plenty of bad times to come.
Baltimore: Despite being a solid coach, Brian Billick will be fired. The Ravens’ troubles will not be solved by his departure.
Detroit: Team president Matt Millen may meet the same fate he handed Steve Mariucci, whom he fired last week. There are all kinds of problems, starting at quarterback.
Green Bay: Will Brett Favre stay? A lack of attention to defense will add a few years to the rebuilding.
Houston: Questions on the coaching staff, in the front office and at quarterback make this a total reconstruction project.
ON THE BUBBLE
These losing teams could go either way.
Arizona: This was a trendy playoff pick in the preseason, but coach Dennis Green has been a disappointment. There is some talent, but little production.
Buffalo: If quarterback J.P. Losman can find consistency, there’s hope.
New Orleans: This has been a mulligan of a season because of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Once settled, the team could be fine.
New York Jets: Ravaged by injuries, this team should be much better next year.
Oakland: There’s plenty of individual talent, but also holes in many places. Expect more of the same in the future.
Philadelphia: This could be a Super Bowl contender again next year. Don’t worry about Andy Reid’s team.
St. Louis: Has underachieved in a high-stress situation. A few tweaks could make this team good again.
Washington: Good defense, bad offense and an uncertain future for coach Joe Gibbs. The offseason will tell the tale.
Rivera a name to remember
Chicago: Add another name to the list of hot coaching candidates: Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera. Several defensive coordinators are on the list. Among those who will get looks are the Giants’ Tim Lewis, the Jets’ Donnie Henderson, the Falcons’ Ed Donatell, the Packers’ Jim Bates, the Redskins’ Gregg Williams and the Titans’ Jim Schwarz.
None may attract the attention Rivera garners. The Bears’ defense is ranked No 1 in the NFL and Rivera is being lauded for integrating head coach Lovie Smith’s philosophies with his own. Rivera is an energetic coach who mixes well with players because of his playing days. His Hispanic heritage could add to his attractiveness in areas such as Oakland, Houston and Arizona, where coaching changes are not out of the question.
Bratkowski’s stature growing
Cincinnati: Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski has done an outstanding job and his name could be hot come January. He is being credited for the fast and spectacular development of young quarterback Carson Palmer.
Bratkowski has been a coordinator in Seattle and Cincinnati, worked under offensive innovator Dennis Erickson and has a calm personality. A respected coach, Bratkowski would be an inexpensive, quality choice as a head coach if the need arises in Baltimore, Detroit, St. Louis or Oakland.
Lions should play Shell game
Detroit: Here’s an out-of-the-box idea for the next head coach of the Lions: Art Shell. The former Oakland coach now handles disciplinary action in the NFL and is highly respected across the league.
Shell might consider returning to coaching if the situation were right. Millen, assuming he isn’t fired, is a former Raiders star and knows Shell well. Shell would offer the discipline wanted after Millen ousted player-friendly Mariucci. Shell, who got some interest from Miami last year, has the offensive background that could get a lot out of the young talent on that side of the ball.
Big opportunity for Garrard
Jacksonville: In addition to trying to lead the Jaguars into the playoffs, quarterback David Garrard will be playing for his NFL future during the next month.
With starter Byron Leftwich out four to six weeks with a broken left ankle, it’ll be up to Garrard to lead the Jaguars (8-3) to the postseason. It also is a chance for Garrard to show other NFL teams he deserves to be a starter.
Scouts believe Garrard, 27, could be a quality starter. There are potential quarterback openings for the Ravens, Raiders, Jets, Cardinals, Browns, Lions, Texans, Dolphins, Vikings, Saints and Bucs. Garrard could put himself on plenty of radar screens.
Moss shows good, bad sides
Oakland: Wide receiver Randy Moss is confusing folks across the league. Is he the same Moss or is he growing up? Moss has displayed signs of both in recent weeks.
First, the bad. Going back to an old habit he had in Minnesota, Moss left the field with time on the clock during a loss to the Broncos last month. He also let his not-so-strong feelings about coach Norv Turner be known.
However, he has shown been moments of maturity. During a loss to Miami last week, Moss stepped between teammates Ted Washington and Tommy Kelly, who were about to square off on the sideline. Also during that game, Moss went on the field with the Raiders’ training staff to attend to injured safety Stuart Schweigert.
Is Moss still a troubled player, or has he developed into the leader Turner said he was before the Denver game? He’s probably a little of both. Expect to see flashes of Bad Randy if the Raiders fail to get him the ball and continue to lose.
Staff writer Bill Williamson can be reached at 303-820-5450 or bwilliamson@denverpost.com.
