WASHINGTON — The first contests of the presidential campaign have led to a dramatic shake-up in public opinion nationally, with Sen. John McCain now leading the Republican field and Sen. Barack Obama all but erasing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s once-overwhelming advantage among Democrats, according to a Washington Post- ABC News poll.
Competitive contests in both parties have captured the public’s attention. Four of every five people say they are closely tuned in, and a third are “very closely” following the races, a sharp increase from a month ago and well higher than the proportions at this stage in 2000 or 2004.
Clinton had dominated from the outset, ahead by 30 percentage points as recently as a month ago, but that has changed.
In the new poll, 42 percent of likely Democratic voters support Clinton, of New York, and 37 percent back Obama, of Illinois. Clinton’s support is down 11 percentage points from a month ago, with Obama’s up 14. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina held third with 11 percent, followed by Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent.
The big gains by McCain, of Arizona, which came after his victory in the New Hampshire primary, mark the first time he has topped the Republican field in a Post-ABC News national survey. His rise mirrors a dramatic tumble for former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who led most national polls throughout 2007.
Giuliani drops to fourth
Giuliani, who finished well back in Iowa and New Hampshire, ranks fourth in the new poll at 15 percent. McCain, meanwhile, has more than double the support he had a month ago and now stands at 28 percent among likely GOP voters. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who scored a big victory in the Iowa caucuses, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the runner-up in both early contests, sit at 20 and 19 percent, respectively.
Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee registers 8 percent, in single digits for the first time, with only half the support he had in early November. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who got 10 percent of the votes in Iowa and 8 percent in New Hampshire, is at 3 percent; Rep. Duncan Hunter of California is at 2 percent.
The sudden turnaround in national sentiment partly reflects the continued uncertainty among Republican voters. Only a third of McCain’s supporters back him “strongly.”
And this week’s primaries may further unsettle the race. Victories in Michigan on Tuesday and in South Carolina on Saturday would stamp McCain as the front-runner, but stumbles in either contest could further disrupt the GOP battle.
In the Democratic race, opinions shifted decisively after Obama’s big win in Iowa and Clinton’s narrow victory in New Hampshire.
Despite the dip in support for Clinton, 68 percent of those backing her are “strongly” behind her candidacy. But Obama’s support has both grown and deepened: Fifty-six percent are solidly behind him, up from 41 percent last month.
Clinton continues to lead Obama among Democrats by 8 points, while Obama has a 13-point edge among independents. Independents helped Obama win Iowa and broke heavily for him in New Hampshire. Many upcoming contests limit participation to registered Democrats, which Clinton’s advisers see as an advantage.
Obama rises in stature
The tight competition for the nomination is reflected in key candidate qualities and issues, where Obama has in some cases neutralized what were big Clinton advantages.
Clinton is still seen as the strongest leader and most electable among the Democratic candidates, but Obama has risen significantly on both counts.Obama has the advantage in which candidate is perceived to be the most honest, a turnaround in the past month, and half now see him as the most inspiring Democrat.
On the economy, now the top issue for both parties, 46 percent trust Clinton the most and 33 percent Obama, and the two are rated about evenly on the war in Iraq. Last month, Clinton enjoyed large advantages on both. She maintains a wide edge on health care, but Obama is up 12 points on this issue.
Edwards’ second-place finish in Iowa has not turned into momentum. In this poll, he slipped 6 points as the Democrats’ most inspiring and most electable candidate. Just 10 percent rank him as the most likely to bring change to Washington.
In the Republican campaign, McCain’s success in New Hampshire has translated into across-the-board gains among Republicans and GOP- leaning independents. By a 2-to-1 ratio over Giuliani, McCain is seen as the candidate with the best experience to be president. He tops the field on electability and leadership.
The poll, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
