This is an election season of firsts for Latino voters.
It’s the first time all of the presidential campaigns are aggressively courting the Latino vote. It’s the first time each campaign, particularly the Democrats’, has significant Latino leadership supporting, campaigning and reaching out to the community.
It’s also the first time the Latino vote could be the deciding factor in several states.
“The scales have finally tipped to the point that everybody recognizes that the Latino vote matters a lot, especially if you can swing it,” said Brent Wilkes, executive director of the League of United Latin American Citizens. “The candidates are realizing you have to have a Hispanic strategy to get elected. The anti-immigrant rhetoric doesn’t pick up enough white votes for the Latino votes they are losing.”
Heading toward Super Tuesday, when more than 20 states will hold nominating contests, the question is: Will Latino voters embrace the opportunity? And, how much will cultural issues affect voter choice?
“The Latino voters throughout this whole West and Southwest are extremely important on Tuesday,” said Tom Cronin, Colorado College political science professor and author. “The growing number of registered Hispanics — the immigration issue has mobilized some Hispanics to be more involved than they might have been — and the fact that until recently with (Bill) Richardson there was a Hispanic, a woman and a black running, and that was new ground. The notion of a minority or an alternative agenda is an exciting thing.”
There are millions of Latino voters across the Super Tuesday states, and the candidates have been trying to make an impression in a frenzied campaign across the Southwest that has included stops in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado just in the past week.
Democratic candidates have hit the road hard, especially in the Western states, bringing their message not only in English but in Spanish as well. They’ve employed the help of well-known Latino leaders such as Federico Peña, Bob Menendez, Javier Becerra and Dolores Huerta, and welcomed the contributions of thousands of bilingual Latino volunteers.
LULAC expects to see Latino voters top 10 million this cycle, nearly doubling the 5.9 million Latino votes counted in 2000. Immigration reform efforts in Congress and the immigrant marches that took place in the past two years are expected to drive Latinos to the polls.
“Hispanics feel that politics matters and it’s affecting their lives,” Wilkes said. “They are registering and voting, and they are not going to vote for people who are anti-Latino.”
A poll by the Pew Hispanic Center in the fall revealed that the inroads Republicans had made with Latinos in 2004 are eroding. The poll found that 57 percent of registered Latino voters consider themselves Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party and 23 percent are Republicans or trend that way. That 34-point gap was 21 points two years ago.
The poll also found that a majority of Latinos view the Democratic Party as the one showing more concern for Latinos and doing a better job on the issue of illegal immigration. And 41 percent of Latinos say the policies of the Bush administration have been harmful to Latinos.
But it’s a mistake to believe that Latinos will vote as a bloc. Age, cultural background, social and economic status and party affiliation and even how many generations a Latino family has lived in the U.S. play a part in decisions.
“The Latino voter is very complex,” said Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli, director of Latino communications for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign. “There is not just one type of Latino voter, just like there is not just one type of white voter.”
Choices fit no profile
Despite the best efforts of the presidential campaigners, Helen Abousleman is still not sure for whom she will vote Tuesday. Owner of the True Value Hardware store in Bernalillo, N.M., the Democrat is weighing the issues. Her son Greg, who also works in the store, has sided with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a Republican.
Helen thinks it would be nice to have a woman in the White House but isn’t ready to vote based on gender. And though she is from a Latino family in New Mexico, she isn’t basing her vote on that either.
“I don’t think it should be about ethnicity,” she said. “I think it should be about reaching out to voters on issues, not on anything else.”
For James Gonzales, 31, shopping in Abousleman’s store, his choice goes into the divine.
“I’m hoping for (John) McCain because of his religious beliefs,” Gonzales said. “I think my religious beliefs override cultural connections for me.”
What political experts do agree on is that Latinos are loyal and relationship-based, focused on family issues, health care and the economy.
“Based on evidence so far, Hillary Clinton has a significant edge with Latino voters,” said Paul Taylor, acting director of the Pew Hispanic Center. “Previously Republicans had been eating away at the Democratic Latino hold, but we found Latinos have a very poor assessment of how Republicans have handled the immigration issue.”
The support for Clinton comes from Latinos remembering fondly the administration of Bill Clinton, said Wilkes. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is firing up his outreach to Latinos, and Wilkes said time is Obama’s obstacle.
Obama held a rally Thursday in Los Angeles.
Alma Marquez, 33, took a week off work at Green Dot Public Schools in the L.A. area to volunteer for Obama.
“It’s important to have somebody who is going to carry our water all the time and not just when it’s convenient,” she said. “They need to know they can’t take us for granted.”
The aggressive campaigning and the Latino staffers and volunteers make a difference, said Juan Jose Gutierrez, 46, coordinator of Latino Movement USA in Los Angeles. He and Marquez attended the Obama rally at the Los Angeles Trade Technical College.
Cultural gestures such as saying hello in Spanish or staging a photo opportunity at popular taco restaurants, as he feels Clinton did recently by visiting the legendary King Taco in East Los Angeles, aren’t enough anymore.
“Eating a taco isn’t good enough. We want to know what the program is,” Gutierrez said. “Latinos are thinking people.”
And in Colorado, at a meeting of the Clinton Hispanic Leadership Council Committee at VFW Post 51 on West Colfax Avenue, Manny Rodriguez, a superdelegate, said it was Clinton’s commitment to ending the war in Iraq and her familiarity that bought his support.
“We have a history with Hillary, we know her, we know what she will do for our kids,” Rodriguez said. “We don’t know (Obama) or who he will appoint.”
Some Latinos acknowledge there is a historical divide between Latinos and African-Americans, but most do not believe that would drive Latinos away from Obama.
Obama addressed the concern in Los Angeles before a mostly Latino and African-American crowd under the sunshine at Trade Tech.
“I hear talk about the black-brown divide, and I take that seriously,” he said. “When I talk about issues that affect the Latino community and the black community and the white community and urban issues, it’s not just political rhetoric; this is the cause of my life.”
A Pew Poll found eight in 10 Latinos have favorable opinions of blacks and eight in 10 blacks have favorable opinions of Latinos. The poll also found that 30 percent of Latinos described relations as “not getting along too well.”
In winning the Nevada caucuses, Clinton collected nearly two-thirds of the Latino vote, a disappointment to Obama, who was endorsed by a heavily Latino union representing casino employees.
Wilkes recognizes the perception but doesn’t believe it will affect voters’ choices.
“The truth is the communities are smarter than allowing us to pit each other against the other,” he said. “Both communities realize you can’t fight over scraps and you have to stick together.”
Tipping the scale
According to the Pew Hispanic Center, four states are key because they constitute sizable shares of Latinos where Bush won by 5 percent or less in 2004. Those states are New Mexico, with 37 percent Latino voters; Florida, with 14 percent; and Nevada and Colorado, each with 12 percent.
The U.S. is home to 46 million Latinos, who make up 15 percent of the population and are expected to be about 9 percent of the eligible electorate, according to the Pew center.
“Latinos are not just the swing vote; they are the difference,” said Rodriguez in Denver.
Which is why each party is sparing no effort or expense to reach Latinos. Critical to those campaigns have been the Latino leaders who have attached themselves to each side.
The Clinton campaign has a Latino outreach team and Latino consultants providing advice and strategies for how to reach Latinos, she said.
“Hillary Clinton needs them to win this election,” Rodriguez-Ciampoli said. “We are counting on them.”
Republicans, who can feel the drain of Latino voters to the other side, are appealing to Latinos on family-values issues, said Scott Darnell, communications director for the Republican Party of New Mexico, which holds its primary June 3.
“We do realize that there is a misperception by Hispanic voters toward the Republican Party that it might not have much of a care or commitment,” Darnell said. “So we are working to change that perception.”
LULAC’s Wilkes expects McCain to receive Latino support, especially from moderates and independents. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has run a large number of anti-immigrant ads, would lose the Latino vote resoundingly, Wilkes said.
“McCain would be a serious contender with Latinos,” Wilkes said.
Vote “absolutely key”
A decade ago Latino leaders were talking about the awakening giant, recalled Peña, former Denver mayor, Clinton Cabinet member and current national co-chairman of Obama’s campaign.
“People in the Latino community were beginning to understand the potential political strength that the community had if people registered to vote and started to vote,” he said. “Now you see Republicans and Democrats campaigning aggressively and doing all the outreach they are doing because the Latino vote is absolutely key, particularly in states where a statewide race is close and Latinos will be the deciding vote.”
The strategy in reaching Latino voters has become more sophisticated. Four years ago, when President Bush won 40 percent of the Latino vote, he did so mostly by using Spanish-language television.
Today, each of the campaigns is running a full-court press in the Latino community. Every candidate is not only taping ads in Spanish but also appearing on Spanish-language radio shows, speaking in Latino neighborhoods and have teams of Latinos on phones, canvassing neighborhoods and acting as surrogates to get their message out.
A study by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials projected that 80 percent of Latino voters will have cast a vote in the primaries on or before Tuesday.
The Democratic Party moved Nevada’s caucuses early in the nominating calendar as a way to give Latino voters a voice and to get the attention of candidates, said Luis Miranda, deputy communications director of the Democratic National Committee.
Selecting Denver as the site for the 2008 Democratic National Convention is also part of that same push, he said.
“The whole West is going to be important for the November election, and we think that Hispanics are going to play a role,” he said.
Elizabeth Aguilera: 303-954-1372 or eaguilera@denverpost.com
Hispanics in the 2008 Election
Here is a breakdown by the Pew Hispanic Center of eight Super Tuesday states with a relatively high concentration of Latino voters:
Arizona
Arizona’s Hispanic population is the sixth-largest in the nation. Nearly 1.8 million Hispanics reside in Arizona, 4% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 673,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Arizona, 4% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
California
California’s Hispanic population is the largest of any state in the nation. More than 13 million Hispanics reside in California, 30% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are over 5 million eligible Hispanic voters in California, 28% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
Colorado
Colorado’s Hispanic population is eighth-largest in the nation. More than 927,000 Hispanics reside in Colorado, 2% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are over 404,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Colorado, 2% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
Illinois
Illinois’s Hispanic population is the fifth-largest in the nation. Nearly 1.9 million Hispanics reside in Illinois, 4% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are over 708,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Illinois, 4% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
Massachusetts
Massachusetts’s Hispanic population is the fifteenth-largest in the nation. More than 509,000 Hispanics reside in Massachusetts, 1% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 246,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Massachusetts, 1% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
New Jersey
New Jersey’s Hispanic population is the seventh-largest in the nation. More than 1.4 million Hispanics reside in New Jersey, 3% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 588,000 eligible Hispanic voters in New Jersey, 3% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
New Mexico
New Mexico’s Hispanic population is the ninth-largest in the nation. More than 874,000 Hispanics reside in New Mexico, 2% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 501,000 eligible Hispanic voters in New Mexico, 3% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
New York
New York’s Hispanic population is the fourth-largest in the nation. More than 3 million Hispanics reside in New York, 7% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 1.5 million eligible Hispanic voters in New York, 8% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
