WASHINGTON — By 2017, consumers and taxpayers will spend more than $4 trillion on health care, accounting for $1 of every $5 spent, the federal government projects.
The 6.7 percent annual increase in spending — nearly three times the rate of inflation — will be largely driven by higher prices and an increased demand for care, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said Monday. But other factors in the mix include a growing and aging population. The first wave of baby boomers becomes eligible for Medicare beginning in 2011.
With the aging population, the federal government will be picking up the tab for a growing share of the nation’s medical expenses.
Overall, federal and state governments accounted for about 46 percent of health expenditures in 2006. That percentage will increase to 49 percent over the next decade.
“Health is projected to consume an expanding share of the economy, which means that policymakers, insurers and the public will face increasingly difficult decisions about the way healthcare is delivered and paid for,” CMS economists said.
Overall healthcare spending in 2017 was estimated to increase to $4.3 trillion.
In 2006, people and the government spent $2.1 trillion on healthcare, an average of $7,026 a person. In 2017, health spending will cost an estimated $13,101 a person.
In his budget for next year, President Bush recommended slowing the yearly growth of Medicare from about 7 percent to about 5 percent.
The slowdown would occur primarily by freezing reimbursement rates for the next three years to scores of healthcare providers, such as hospitals, nursing homes and home health centers. Bush also proposed requiring wealthier Medicare beneficiaries to pay higher monthly premiums when participating in Medicare’s prescription-drug coverage plan.
Those recommendations would reduce spending by nearly $178 billion over five years but have little chance of passage in Congress.
Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt has acknowledged the unpopularity of the recommendations, but he said politicians must make some hard decisions. The longer lawmakers wait, the more difficult the decisions will be.
“Medicare, on its current course, is not sustainable,” Leavitt testified.
Democratic lawmakers also have proposed ways to slow health spending, primarily by trimming payments to private insurers who oversee health coverage for nearly 9 million Medicare beneficiaries.
A growing number of the nation’s elderly and disabled are electing to get health coverage through private plans that contract with the federal government, and government economists predicted that trend will continue.
Now, about one in six beneficiaries get their health benefits through a private plan. By 2017, more than one in four beneficiaries will get their coverage that way, Medicare officials said.
Over the coming decade, that difference is expected to narrow slightly. Still, the continued gap is worrisome, said the agency’s acting administrator, Kerry Weems. He said consumers, particularly businesses, need more information about the quality and cost of care.
“We have an approaching crisis in this country unless we change the way we do business,” Weems said.
• 6.9% Projected annual increase in spending on hospital care over the next decade
• 5.9% Projected annual increase in cost of physician services in the next decade
• 5.2% Projected annual increase in nursing-home spending in the next decade
• 2.7% Annual increase in health spending beyond growth in gross domestic product in the last three decades
