It is a heavyweight fight that will pit the state’s No. 1 politician against its No. 1 industry.
When Gov. Bill Ritter last week threw his support behind a plan to raise taxes on the oil and gas industry — the first time he has endorsed a ballot initiative as governor — he did not pick an easy battle.
Instead he chose a campaign that will likely run into the tens of millions of dollars and one in which there is no certainty he will win.
“It could well be the most expensive ballot issue we’ve had in some time,” said political pollster Floyd Ciruli. “You’re going after the most powerful industry in the state, the wealthiest.”
The ballot initiative that Ritter is backing would take away a property-tax credit the industry receives and send the estimated $200 million per year into a college scholarship program, as well as several other programs such as wildlife-habitat protection.
Ritter said Friday he strongly believes in giving low- and middle-income students a chance to attend college. But he also hinted that he pushed for most of the money to go to scholarships partly to put a good political face on the initiative.
“I suspect that people will respect that we’re focusing on low-income and middle-income families,” he said.
But that decision — leaving out operations money that would go directly to colleges — has left many higher-education leaders less enthusiastic about the plan.
Analysts said they think a campaign that puts disadvantaged students front and center won’t stop the industry from vigorously attacking the initiative.
“I wonder whether the honey in the deal will attract enough bees,” said Steve Welchert, a Democratic political consultant. “Scholarships are important, but I wonder if scholarships will attract enough voters.”
Complicating things, two Republican state lawmakers Friday filed their own ballot initiatives — which, without raising taxes, would raise about the same amount of money for higher education or transportation — the sponsors haven’t yet decided.
Instead, the money would be freed up by capping how much severance tax the state’s Department of Natural Resources receives per year and sending the spillover into a new fund.
“It’s going to give voters a clear choice on the ballot: Do you increase taxes, or do you make better use of what you already have?” said Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Yuma, one of the initiative’s sponsors.
So far, industry leaders are guarded about what type of campaign they intend to run, though they often question the wisdom of taxing the state’s most important industry as a recession looms and warn that energy prices will rise if taxes do.
“I’m not going to speak against education,” said Meg Collins, the president of the Colorado Oil and Gas Association. “I don’t think putting the burden on one industry to fund education is appropriate.”
The oil and gas initiative proponents — made up of environmental and higher-education advocates — say they understand what lies ahead.
“There’s no way we’re going to be able to outspend the industry,” said Elise Jones, the executive director of the Colorado Environmental Coalition.
“But I do think Colorado voters agree there doesn’t need to be a tax loophole for the oil and gas industry that is making record profits.”
John Ingold: 303-954-1068 or jingold@denverpost.com
