Last season, the Nuggets were plagued — big payroll, little defense, faux cockiness, occasional leadership, locusts — but this season, Denver has rid itself of all the plagues but one.
And it keeps popping up at inopportune times, like an ex on a first date.
Turnovers.
Yes, the Nuggets are No. 2 in the West and playing a Naismith-approved brand of basketball. But still “the one stat in a playoff situation that I’m a little scared about is teams pressuring us into mistakes or bad shots,” coach George Karl said. “The nemesis of last year.”
Last season, the Nuggets had the 10th-most turnovers in the NBA, the most of any Western Conference playoff team. Indeed, they could do better. This season, the Nuggets average the sixth-most turnovers per game (15.38).
“Turnovers have been a little bit of an emphasis,” Karl said. “Carmelo (Anthony), J.R. (Smith) and Chauncey (Billups) have got to play a little more cautious.”
Billups, of course, is the ball-handler, and while his resúme has been resplendent, his one arguable blemish is his 2.28 turnovers per game, his highest average since 2003-04. And there was a striking streak in late March when he had 17 turnovers in five games (3.4 per game), but in the following seven games — through Denver’s most-recent game — he had just 12 (a reassuring 1.7).
Fellow point guard Anthony Carter is averaging more turnovers than last season, as are Smith and Kenyon Martin. As for Melo, he averages 3.05 per game, compared to 3.09 last season.
Karl, naturally, has been stressing ball control and poise to his team, because in the postseason, possessions are priceless.
In regard to turnovers, here’s another aspect that isn’t necessarily calculable, but its effect is palpable. When a player takes a bad shot — be it contested, a long-2 or early in the shot clock — it’s often rebounded by the other team and makes it easier to start a fast break.
In other words, a bad shot is basically a turnover.
It’s unquestionable that Smith’s long-range shooting can change the course of a game. When he’s hot, it’s over. But it’s also unquestionable that he sometimes forces jumpers that mess up the flow of the offense. No one talks about it when these jumpers routinely drop against subpar opponents such as the Clippers or Grizzlies. But in the postseason, defenses will be tighter and tougher. Finding a postseason balance is key for Smith, and thus, the Nuggets, because the word around the Pepsi Center is that Smith is awful at playing transition defense. A forced shot leads to a “turnover” — and a transition advantage for a Denver opponent.
Awards season.
Brush off your tux and get ready for uncomfortable on-stage banter between two random celebrity presenters — it’s time to pass out NBA hardware.
MVP: LeBron James, Cleveland. I choose the “Chosen One” — he’s the best player on the team with the best record. The Lakers’ Kobe Bryant is second, followed by Orlando’s Dwight Howard and then, yep, fourth goes to our town’s Billups, who changed the culture of the No. 2 team in the West. Fifth? Miami’s Dwyane Wade.
Rookie of the year: Derrick Rose, Chicago. There are plenty of worthy candidates, but of all the candidates, Rose’s team has the best record.
Defensive player of the year: Howard. He leads in rebounding and blocks.
Sixth man: Jason Terry, Dallas. The guy averages 19.6 points off the bench for a playoff team.
Most improved: Devin Harris, New Jersey. I hate this award because it’s so vague. Oklahoma City, for instance, is campaigning that Kevin Durant should win the award for “improving” into the player he’s supposed to be. Counting this year, Harris’ career scoring average is 12.2. This year he’s averaging 21.5. That’s improvement.
Coach of the year: Mike Brown, Cleveland. Yes, he has the MVP. But the former Nuggets video coordinator is at the top of his game, running a system that really isn’t just a one-manchild show.
Executive(s) of the year: Rex Chapman, Bret Bearup and Mark Warkentien, Denver. These guys took a $90 million payroll and somehow got it under the luxury tax, while turning an eight seed into a two seed. From Billups to Birdman, each move has paid off.
Spotlight on …
Greg Oden, Blazers center
Remember when Greg Oden was Greg Oden?
It seems like a decade ago the 7-footer was anointed the next great big man, with a defensive prowess that caused some to actually utter the words Bill Russell and Greg Oden in the same sentence. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2007 draft, one slot ahead of Kevin Durant — and everyone knew Durant would be a future all-star, suggesting the potential greatness of Greg.
But here we are, basically two full seasons later, and Oden is coming off the bench for Portland, averaging 8.8 points and 7.0 rebounds in his first NBA season, following the knee-injury debacle of 2007-08.
Yes, the NBA’s Benjamin Button is actually just 21 (dude looks 51), and he has time on his side, but his growing pains have been visible.
But in the playoffs, Oden could be more of a factor because, as Nuggets coach George Karl said, “Rebounding is more important in the playoffs — extra possessions and that tough-paint play always becomes factors.”
For Karl, he remembered back when he watched Oden take on current Lakers post Andrew Bynum in the ABCD Camp, when the two players were still in high school.
“Everyone was saying Oden this, Oden that, and I was like, ‘That kid (Bynum) outplayed him. If we’re in love with this kid, we’ve got to be in love with the other kid.”
And while Bynum, about three months younger than Oden, has dealt with major injuries too, it’s arguable that he indeed has more NBA upside than the former No. 1 pick.
Benjamin Hochman, The Denver Post
