ROGGEN, Colo.—U.S. winter wheat production is expected to be down 18 percent from last year, but plenty of spring rain in Colorado could give the state one of its best harvests in years, according to a forecast Friday from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service said Friday it expects production of 1.52 billion bushels nationwide, up 2 percent from the forecast last month but down 18 percent from 2008.
The Colorado harvest is projected at 88.8 million bushels, up 10 percent from the forecast a month ago. Colorado Wheat Administrative Committee executive director Darrell Hanavan predicts the Colorado harvest could reach 91 million bushels.
If the USDA forecasts are correct, Colorado would vault up to having the third-highest winter wheat production in the country—behind No. 1 Kansas and Washington state, now ranked second—after drought and freezes hurt harvests in Texas and Oklahoma. Colorado was 10th last year.
Colorado producers just hope no hail falls before they can finish cutting wheat.
“If the weather holds, this will be our best crop in 10 years,” said Jerry Cooksey of Cooksey Farms near Roggen, about 45 miles east of Denver.
The forecast for Colorado winter wheat isn’t a record, but it tops the 57 million bushels harvested last year and the drought-influenced, 10-year average annual production of 64 million bushels.
Many farmers in the dry, southeast corner of the state are wrapping up their harvests. But in the northeast, the past few weeks have been so wet that some fields haven’t been cut yet.
Cooksey Farms’ combines started cutting wheat this week. It takes the Cookseys and a few hired helpers two to three weeks of dry weather to harvest about 4,000 acres, between managing a cow-calf operation and tending to other crops.
“Every second counts,” said Cooksey’s wife, Damaris. “It’s a two- to three-week harvest. If the weather doesn’t let you cut, you’re letting income sit in the field.”
A crop progress report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service said 69 percent of the Colorado winter wheat crop was rated good or excellent for the week ending July 5. Last year at this time, just 16 percent had the same rating.
Yet wheat prices are lower this year. That means the Cookseys will probably store more wheat this year to sell in December, January and February, when prices should edge upward, Jerry Cooksey said.
The statistics service expected U.S. yields of 43.8 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from the forecast last month and down 3.4 bushels from last year. The harvest for top-ranked Kansas was forecast at 360.8 million bushels, up from 356 million last year.
U.S. durum wheat production was forecast at 81.2 million bushels, down 4 percent from 2008, though yields are expected to be slightly higher at 33.1 bushels per acre, the statistics service said. Other spring wheat production was forecast at 506 million bushels, 7 percent below 2008, with yields of 38.3 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from 2008.
In the northeast corner of Colorado, Rich Starkebaum wasn’t expecting to start cutting winter wheat on his farm near Haxtun until next week.
“I’m 62 years old, and this is the latest start we’ve had in cutting wheat,” said Starkebaum, who said he is almost always cutting by the Fourth of July.
Starkebaum guesses hail may have cut a neighbor’s crop by half, but on his own land, Starkebaum expects above-average production.
“Looking forward to one of the best. I just wish it was in the bin,” he said.
In dry, southeastern Colorado not far from Kansas, Terry Swanson was nearly done with the harvest.
Earlier in the year, he feared a dry winter and some pest issues would keep yields down. Now he estimates he had an above-average yield of about 35 bushels per acre.
“We just feel blessed we got it,” Swanson said.
