LONDON — An ugly scramble is brewing over the swine-flu vaccine — and when it becomes available, Britain, the United States and other nations could find that the contracts they signed with pharmaceutical companies are easily broken.
Experts warn that during a global epidemic, which the world is in now, governments may be under tremendous pressure to protect their citizens first before allowing companies to ship doses of vaccine out of the country.
That does not bode well for many nations, including the United States, which makes only 20 percent of the regular flu vaccines it uses, or Britain, where all of its flu vaccines are produced abroad.
“This isn’t rocket science,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “If there is severe disease, countries will want to hang on to the vaccine for their own citizens.”
About 70 percent of the world’s existing flu vaccines are made in Europe, and only a handful of countries are self-sufficient in vaccines. The U.S. has limited flu-vaccine facilities, and because factories can’t be built overnight, there is no quick fix to boost vaccine supplies.
Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced it was spending $884 million to buy extra supplies of two key ingredients for a swine-flu vaccine. The U.S. has contracts to get swine- flu vaccines from Sanofi Pasteur, MedImmune, GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis. Sanofi Pasteur and MedImmune have vaccine plants in the U.S., while GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis have plants in Europe.
Even if the U.S. held on to all the swine-flu vaccine produced domestically, it would still not be enough for all Americans.
Public-health officials are aware that so-called “vaccine wars” might break out if the swine-flu outbreak worsens but are loath to even discuss the topic.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, an agency of the European Union, said it had no mandate to advise countries in such circumstances. The World Health Organization said it was not aware of any nations planning to block the shipment of vaccines and that it would work to ensure all countries can protect their health workers.
