KABUL, Afghanistan — It could take years and possibly even a peace settlement for Afghanistan to reap profits from nearly $1 trillion in mineral resources that U.S. geologists say lie beneath its rugged terrain — some in areas controlled by Taliban insurgents or warlords.
Geologists have known for decades that Afghanistan has vast mineral wealth, but a U.S. Department of Defense briefing this week put a startling price tag on the country’s reserves of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and other prized minerals: at least $908 billion.
If impoverished Afghanistan is seen as having a bright economic future, that could help foreign governments persuade their war-fatigued publics that securing the country is worth the fight and loss of troops. It also could give Afghans hope, U.S. officials say.
“The Afghan people (are) developing an understanding that they have a source of indigenous wealth that if properly developed will enable them to be sovereign,” said Paul Brinkley, a senior defense official who led the study.
Still, without increased security and massive investment to mine and transport the minerals, it could take years for Afghanistan to bank the rewards. And there is always the potential that such a discovery could bring unintended consequences, including corruption and civil war.
“Obama’s war just became more important and more complicated at the same time,” said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer who helped advise the administration last year when it was rethinking its Afghanistan strategy.
Riedel said that if the U.S. can provide the Afghans security and logistics to build up its mining capacity, Afghanistan’s international stock will become more valuable. But there are a host of complications — competing industries and countries, corruption and war.
“If this was Pennsylvania, it’d turn out one way,” he said. “But this is Afghanistan.”
Stephanie Sanok, who dealt with similar issues while working at the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, likened the situation to a carnival game that promises a prize if you can guide a tiny, hand-controlled crane to the perfect spot: It almost never works and requires a steady stream of money.
For one thing, Afghanistan lacks even the most basic resources for mining, such as railroads and electricity. Afghanistan is expected to complete its first railroad this year.
And much of the minerals are in or around Taliban strongholds, which could encourage fighting to gain control of the deposits, said Sanok, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
