Southwest Airlines could become DIA’s largest carrier in a year or so, as it builds its Denver presence and current market leader United Airlines juggles its fleet mix and slips to second position, aviation consultant Michael Boyd said Wednesday.
Speaking to the Denver Association of Business Economists, Boyd said United has “outsourced” significant flying to regional airline affiliates, but the carrier, made even stronger by its recent combination with Continental Airlines, offers travelers the added value of its affiliation with the Star Alliance of global carriers.
Boyd Group International, Boyd’s Evergreen-based company, offers consulting services to airlines and airports around the world.
In March, United and Continental captured about 30 percent of the domestic passenger market at Denver International Airport, while Southwest’s share stood at 22.6 percent. In the same month a year ago, the United/Continental share was about 33 percent and Southwest’s 17.4 percent.
Regional airlines separately fly a sizable number of flights under the United Express logo.
Boyd predicted that national airline branding will decline in significance over the next decade.
“It’s the alliance that will be the brand in 10 years,” he said, adding that network carriers such as United, Delta and American are best positioned to prosper in an increasingly global- oriented business.
United’s Star Alliance partners include Air Canada, Air China, Air New Zealand, ANA (All Nippon Airways), Lufthansa, Singapore, Turkish and US Airways.
Large amounts of domestic air traffic in the United States are stimulated by international aviation links, Boyd said, noting that Southwest, as successful as it is domestically, has no access to that traffic.
Low-cost carriers such as Southwest will be “scrambling for defensive niches,” and the carrier’s effort to boost its flow of passengers through DIA is one example of that strategy, he said.
Boyd said he does not see any end to the competition among United, Southwest and Frontier Airlines at DIA.
“We are very fortunate to have three airlines trying to kill each other,” he said.
