WASHINGTON — The Obama administration, as part of an accelerated push toward an endgame in Afghanistan, last month reached a tentative accord with Taliban negotiators that would have included the transfer of five Afghans from U.S. detention at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and the Taliban’s public renunciation of international terrorism.
The deal called for the prisoners to be sent to house arrest in Qatar, where the Taliban planned to open an office, and additional actions by both sides, according to U.S. and European officials who would discuss the sensitive negotiations only on the condition of anonymity. Until now, no Guantanamo detainees have left the prison as bargaining chips in a larger deal.
It was the closest that the parties have come to genuine peace negotiations after nearly a year of talks, officials said. They said the agreement ultimately collapsed after Afghan President Hamid Karzai balked at its terms.
“Right now, things have stopped,” said a senior Obama administration official. “Everybody is taking a deep breath.”
Contacts with the Taliban are expected to be re-established early in the new year.
Lowered expectations
The negotiations reflect a marked change over the past year in what the administration believes is acceptable and achievable in Afghanistan, apart from the core objective of eliminating al-Qaeda and the possibility that it could re-establish an Afghan presence.
Disappointment in the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan, economic and political pressures at home, and sheer fatigue with the decade- long effort have led to lowered expectations as the United States and its allies head toward the scheduled withdrawal of all foreign troops by the end of 2014.
The need to fashion a comprehensive, realistic exit strategy was also underlined in a newly completed National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan, a classified assessment produced by U.S. intelligence agencies. Officials familiar with the document described it as uniformly pessimistic about the future.
“We’re not looking for nirvana,” said a second administration official. “We’re pretty sanguine about Afghan ‘good enough.’ That’s the framework” for current strategy discussions, this official said. “That’s why we’re working so hard on reconciliation.”
U.S. commanders have said that the Taliban’s interest in talks stems from coalition gains on the battlefield. But officials said they believe the insurgents are more or less in the same position as the United States in forecasting that the conflict will reach an inconclusive end. The Taliban may believe that political accommodation now will better position it for future struggles after the troop withdrawal, officials said.
Short-term agreements with the insurgents, such as the establishment of cease-fire zones, could influence decisions on when to transfer areas to Afghan control. Those transitions could, in turn, dictate the pace of troop withdrawal, as well as longer-term assessments of what “good enough” means in terms of stability and central government control.
Post-2014 presence
Negotiations with Karzai over an ongoing U.S. military presence beyond 2014 — the Pentagon’s working number is somewhere between 10,000 and 30,000 troops — will be influenced by whether other countries in the region perceive that presence as contributing to or undermining their own security goals.
For now, the administration official said, “we see reconciliation as the most important pillar of our effort. It’s one that’s intertwined with everything else we’re doing, especially the military elements.”
The potential transfer of prisoners was the result of at least a half-dozen meetings this year between the U.S. and a Taliban delegation headed by Tayyib Agha, an aide to Afghan Taliban leader Mohammed Omar. German officials have held other meetings with other Taliban representatives.
“We believe we are talking to the right people, those who have the ability to do confidence- building measures,” the senior administration official said.
“We knew what we wanted — a statement against international terrorism” that would amount to a public break with al-Qaeda, the official continued, as well as a similar statement of support for Afghanistan’s constitutional democracy “and an agreement to start negotiations with the Afghan government.”
“They want five prisoners from Guantanamo,” among about 20 Afghans being held there, the official said. “They would like an office (in Qatar). We said OK but only for the purpose of negotiating with the Afghans. Not for propaganda, not for recruitment, not for an alternative government, but about the future of Afghanistan.”
