The health of the Colorado housing market in Colorado favors Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Udall over challenger Republican Cory Gardner, a study by California-based RealtyTrac released Tuesday concluded.
In releasing the report, Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, said that the housing recovery has taken hold in about half of the country, but the recovery is weak or experiencing a relapse in the other half.
“Whether because of good government policy, sheer luck or otherwise, the majority of county housing markets in six of the eight states with close U.S. Senate races are better off than they were two years go,” said Blomquist in a statement.
“This should favor the incumbent, or the incumbent’s party, all else being equal — which of course we know it is not,” he added.
Of the 35 counties in Colorado with sufficient housing data to score, 33 were categorized as “Better Off” while two were categorized as “Toss Ups” and none were categorized as “Worse Off,” according to RealtyTrac.
The “Better Off” counties had a population of 4.8 million, representing 99 percent of the total population in counties with data.
The two “Toss-Up” counties had a population of 40,385, representing one percent of the total population in counties with data.
In the most populated counties on Colorado’s Front Range — El Paso, Denver and Arapahoe — the housing data favored incumbent Udall, the study said.
Unemployment is down in all three counties, home prices are rising in all three and foreclosure starts are down in Denver and Arapahoe.
The report scored 1,547 U.S. county housing markets on up to five factors impacting housing health. They included housing affordability compared to two years ago, unemployment rates compared to two years ago, foreclosure starts compared to two years ago, median home prices compared to two years ago, and the percentage of seriously underwater homeowners.
County housing markets were categorized as “Better Off”, “Worse Off” or a “Toss-Up: based on the score.
The report noted that “polls show a dead heat” between Udall and Gardner “in a solidly purple state that could go either way.”
“In this highly competitive contest Democratic incumbent Udall was behind challenger Gardner by a 48 to 47 margin, according to an Oct. 1 Rasmussen Reports poll in a state which President Obama won in 2012,” noted RealtyTrac.
The RealtyTrac report added that the a good Georgia housing market favors the Republican incumbent party; a good North Carolina housing market favors the Democratic incumbent; a good Louisiana housing market favors the Democratic incumbent; a mixed housing market in Iowa means a toss-up between state Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley and GOP state Sen. Joni Ernst; and a good housing market in Arkansas favors the Democratic incumbent.
A good housing market in Kansas favors the Republican incumbent, although independent Greg Orman is showing dramatic gains, said the study.
And in a mixed housing market in Alaska, the race is tight between Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Dan Sullivan.
Howard Pankratz: 303-954-1939, hpankratz@denverpost.com or
