JERUSALEM — Deeply divided and foul of mood, Israelis are headed toward what seems like a referendum on their long-serving, silver-tongued prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
But with so many of them having despaired of peace talks with the Palestinians, the focus is mostly on Netanyahu’s personality, his expense scandals and the soaring cost of living.
No candidate is likely to win big in the wild jumble of Israel’s political landscape in Tuesday’s election.
When Netanyahu called the early election in November, he seemed a shoo-in, but somewhere things went wrong. Notorious around the world for American-accented eloquence in the service of a tough stance, he is divisive at home, where he has been prime minister for the past six years, and for nine total.
His speech last week before Congress, urging a tighter deal than he believes is brewing on Iran’s nuclear program, was typical: He impressed some Israelis, while infuriating others who sensed a political ploy.
Polls show his nationalist Likud Party running slightly behind moderate challenger Isaac Herzog’s Labor Party, rebranded the Zionist Union in a bid for nationalist votes.
There are scenarios in which Herzog — mild-mannered in a high-decibel land — becomes prime minister. And that would change the music: Herzog is a conciliator interested in ending the occupation of lands captured in the 1967 war.
But with the electorate confused and fractured and no clear path forward on the key issues, and with neither Netanyahu nor Herzog likely to win a convincing majority, a plausible outcome has their parties banding together.
They might also agree to rotate as prime minister, with the first turn going to whoever has the stronger parliamentary hand.
Such has already happened in 1984. Labor’s Shimon Peres and Likud’s Yitzhak Shamir lived in uneasy coexistence and switched jobs halfway through. A few things got done. But the main issue, then as now, was the West Bank; Peres negotiated over it with Jordan, only to see his peace plans scuttled by the skeptical Shamir. Shortly thereafter, the first Palestinian uprising began.
