ATHENS, GREECE — Greek and European leaders dug into their positions before the country’s referendum Sunday, as polls showed the outcome is impossible to predict and what happens next even more uncertain.
Officials from Berlin to Madrid reiterated that a “no” to the latest proposals by creditors would deepen Greece’s economic misery. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told supporters in Athens that a “no” vote was the ticket out, as he appealed for a 30 percent cut in his nation’s debt.
Five months of confrontation have yielded little more than economic malaise and political mistrust. Banks in Greece remain shut, and pensioners are coping with rationed payments, giving the country a glimpse of the financial and social catastrophe that could await without an aid agreement.
“You’d like to think that if the vote is very narrowly ‘yes’ the Greek government admits defeat,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at asset manager Investec in London. “But over the last 5½ years, the Greek crisis has had a history of throwing up the unexpected. This could just be the beginning of another very complex chapter.”
Competing rallies took over central Athens on Friday night, closing main streets and forcing hotels and shops to pull down shutters. Police estimated the “no” event, in Syntagma Square, and the “yes” rally, at the Panathenaic Stadium, each drew more than 20,000 people. No significant violence was reported.
“On Sunday, we won’t simply be deciding to remain in Europe. We’ll be deciding to live with dignity in Europe,” Tsipras said from a stage in front of the Parliament building. “We’re celebrating overcoming fear, overcoming blackmail.”
At the “yes” event, opposition leader Antonis Samaras said rejecting the bailout would be seen by creditors as a rebuke of the euro itself and would keep banks closed longer.
Voting is open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. The result should be known before midnight. Emergency negotiations will immediately ensue, with Greek banks running out of cash. The European Central Bank will discuss their emergency lifeline Monday.
Euro-area finance ministers have said they may be ready to start work on a third bailout for Greece even if voters reject their last proposal, according to two officials familiar with negotiations. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he expects a deal to be done regardless of the result.
Europe may have to get used to Greece being “in bankruptcy” while remaining in the euro, European Union President Donald Tusk said in an interview with Politico.
Financial markets suggest the firewalls built since the debt crisis broke out in Greece in 2010 will hold. Since dropping on Monday after capital controls were imposed by Tsipras, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index has gained, as have 10-year bonds in Italy, Portugal and Spain.
Whatever comes after the referendum, the clock is ticking for Greece as it holds out for a better deal.
Tsipras on Friday argued that the only way for Greece’s debt to become sustainable is for a so-called haircut and a 20- year grace period. The International Monetary Fund in a report Thursday said the country needs 36 billion euros from its European partners and better terms to stand on its own feet.
Too close to call
• A survey for the newspaper Proto Thema gave the “yes” campaign a 0.6 point lead over the “no” vote in the bailout referendum — well within the 3 percentage-point margin of error. Of those interviewed, 41.7 percent said they would vote yes and 41.1 percent intend to vote no, with 10.7 percent undecided and the rest casting blank ballots or abstaining. The survey also found that 76 percent of Greeks want to stay among the 19 nations using the euro.
• A poll commissioned by Bloomberg showed 43 percent intend to reject the budget cuts, while 42.5 percent will accept the conditions. The survey of 1,042 people was conducted by the University of Macedonia Research Institute of Applied Social and Economic Studies. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.
• An Ipsos survey showed a razor-thin margin, with “yes” at 44 percent and “no” at 43 percent. The margin of error was 3.1 percentage points.
