NEW YORK — Retail sales might increase as much as 4 percent this holiday season, less than last year’s gain, as shoppers’ wages remain stagnant, according to Deloitte LLP.
Sales, excluding purchases of motor vehicles and gas, might climb to between $961 billion to $965 billion in the November-through-January shopping season, Deloitte said last week in a statement. Holiday sales by that measure rose 5.2 percent last year, according to the New York-based consulting firm.
U.S. shoppers might be cautious with their disposable income this year, restrained by average hourly earnings that the Labor Department says climbed just 2.2 percent in August from the year before.
Slowing global growth and financial-market volatility also might shake consumers’ willingness to spend, despite benefits from higher employment rates, better home values and lower gas prices. Several retailers have responded by keeping seasonal hiring flat or slightly below last year’s levels.
“Personal wealth was really flat at the beginning of the year, so we think that’s going to moderate the sales,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman of Deloitte. “That’s what’s leading to some of the conservatism. That’s what’s factoring into the decision to hold down hiring.”
Deloitte’s forecast is rosier than a projection from research firm ShopperTrak, which said last week that sales in November and December might rise as much as 2.4 percent, driven by an early Hanukkah and a more informed consumer. That increase is less than the 4.6 percent jump in spending the Chicago-based firm reported last year, the biggest gain since 2005.
AlixPartners also expects holiday sales growth to be sluggish this year, increasing 2.8 percent to 3.4 percent. That gain is “on the low end” of holiday sales since 2010, the consulting firm said.
Online and mail-order sales might rise as much as 9 percent, Deloitte said. That’s below last year’s 12 percent gain and the smallest increase since 2013, when nonstore sales grew 6.2 percent.
Still, digital interactions will influence 64 percent, or $434 billion, of retail store sales this season, meaning customers will research products online before buying in person.
“Everyone is trying to customize and cater to individual needs by finding a way to link the online experience with the physical store purchase,” Sides said. “The notion of different channels is going away a little because we expect to be able to buy what we want, where we want, when we want.”
