The Colorado Avalanche’s process has made this team successful over a very long period of time, but time is now running out for the results to match.
Colorado has scored three goals in two games against the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference Final. The Avs have been one short, before empty-net goals allowed, in both contests.
They felt like they played better for parts of Game 2, but they actually created less offense — and missed the net entirely on some of their best chances. Yes, Cale Makar’s absence is huge, and there was no update Saturday on his status for Game 3 on Sunday night at T-Mobile Arena.
But this team scored the most goals in the NHL this season, and was pouring in the most per contest in this tournament until these past two games against Vegas.
“If I felt like we played our best game in Game 1 and our best game in Game 2, and we lost, I’d be a little bit more like, ‘Oh, I’m really worried about this,’ ” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “They’re really good team, especially their strengths are very strong. I look at our game and I break it down in different areas. … show them clear examples of it, show them some things tactically that we did well that we can repeat, show them areas of the game, say offensively, where this guy’s open, why did we just use them and we’re not recognizing it or choosing to do something different, so itap some decision making.
“There’s enough of it there that I say we can be much better in Game 3, that’s what gives me the confidence. It doesn’t guarantee you a win, but they still haven’t seen our best, and maybe we haven’t seen their best either. We have a number of areas in our game that we can improve for Game 3 to get us a better chance of winning.”
The surface numbers are pretty obvious, even if the sample size in this series is obviously quite small. Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas and Brock Nelson combined for 124 goals and 292 points in the regular season. Along with Makar’s 20 goals and 79 points, those are the top four scorers on this team.
They’ve combined for one assist in this series — when MacKinnon set up Gabe Landeskog for a power-play goal late in Game 1. They have no points at 5-on-5.
During the regular season, the Avs created 3.69 expected goals per 60 minutes when Nelson was on the ice, 3.67 when MacKinnon was out there and 3.38 with Necas. Those numbers are all down in this series.
MacKinnon is at 2.88, while Necas (2.0) and Nelson (1.84) are the lowest among the Avalanche forwards. The MacKinnon line had an excellent defensive showing in Game 2, but created just 0.75 expected goals in nearly 16 minutes at 5-on-5. In Game 1, the Avs also created 0.75 expected goals when MacKinnon was on the ice at 5-on-5.
Five days ago, MacKinnon and Necas were two of the hottest players in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The power play was also clicking. Two tough losses later, and the narrative has swung in the other direction in a hurry.
“We’ve got to find a way to produce, right?” Bednar said. “But part of the reason why their top guys are producing is we’re giving them those easy opportunities. They’re not giving those to us, right? So, according to my numbers, we’ve spent a significant more amount of time in o-zone play than them. Home-plate chances, low slot chances are pretty even. I think they’re leaning in our favor, and rush chances is an advantage to them.
“We’ve got to find a way to make it a little more difficult on (Carter) Hart and breaking his eyesight, and keep going to war in the low-slot area, try to pick up some chances. But right now when you’re looking at the chances, it’s very even. I think, again we’re handing him some easy chances and some goals against right now that we can’t afford to.”
As Bednar alluded to there, Vegas has effectively done what Colorado did to Los Angeles in the first round. The Golden Knights allowed zero odd-man rushes in Game 2, while three of their five goals against Scott Wedgewood in this series have come at the end of one.
Vegas has slowed Colorado down in the neutral zone, but also been able to defend with a compact shell once the Avs do create offensive possessions. Ross Colton’s Game 2 goal was the best example of how the Avs can navigate the problem.
Brent Burns sent the puck to the net, and Colton was in a great spot when the shot was blocked. He found the loose puck and put it past Hart because the goaltender could reset.
This isn’t some new tactical idea the Avs haven’t seen before. The Dallas Stars did something similar with Peter DeBoer as coach. Ditto the Winnipeg Jets in the first round in 2024.
The Jets had the best goalie on the planet, but the Avs broke them with a flurry of tips, deflections and screened shots that Connor Hellebuyck did not handle.
Colorado needs more goals, plain and simple. The top players on the team need to be better. The power play needs to contribute.
Even if the Avs feel the process has been good, it needs to be great if they’re going to have a chance to get back in this series.
“There’s obviously a lot of different things we can do,” Avs forward Nicolas Roy said. “I think going hard on the forecheck has been working for us. In the defensive zone, they’re trying to keep us on the outside, so kind of try to go there to the netfront and win those battles and get those rebounds as well. There’s definitely things we can do. Just look at the video and we’ll be ready.”
